Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Playing Grand Theft Auto XII for Free?



According to a newly published eMarketer Report free online and ad supported gaming sites have seen a huge uptick in traffic. In fact, they are more popular than ever. And why not - everyone loves FREE. eMarketer points to the economy as a potential indicator for the increase in traffic.

Ad supported online gaming for casual games makes sense. The games don’t cost near as much to develop or market. The revenue needed to sustain a healthy profit margin is significantly lower than that of a top tier online or console games. Still, we see in game advertising in most of the new releases coming out of the major publishers, so we know that a model is in place. Gamers have come to accept this, and some have even embraced it as it adds a dimension of realism to the experience.

So, how long will it be before a top tier publisher releases a $50 million game to the market for free? If you can wrap your brain around that question, here are a few more that need answers:

  • Would this work for packaged games or only online games?
  • How would a 100% ad supported game affect gameplay?
  • How many different kinds of advertising can a game handle without losing authenticity?
  • How would this ad supported model work for “World of Warcraft” or “Prince of Persia”?
  • Can an ad supported game drive $1 billion in revenue in a two year arc?
  • Would it need to?

We’ve been asking these types of questions ever since the appearance of the first in-game ad. Since then, we’ve seen the music industry’s revenue model implode. The film, book and DVD industries are not far behind. As consumer adoption of online distribution of entertainment increases, the demand for packaged entertainment decreases. This dramatically impacts the revenue model for publishers and opens the door to a 100% ad supported video game.

I’m not saying it’s right. I’m saying it’s coming. It may not be “Call of Duty 6″. Perhaps “Grand Theft Auto XII”.

What do you think? Leave your comments below...

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